磷矿石、、、热法磷酸及湿法净化磷酸行情周报（9.2-9.7）
磷矿石：
本周磷矿石价格暂无变化。。。。北方磷矿有价无市，，，成交有限。。。南方磷矿发运为主，，暂无明显波动，，，贸易商情绪略显松动。。另黄磷矿受黄磷价格上行影响，，成交区间近两周有所上浮。。生产方面，，，，北方地区磷矿企业陆续恢复生产，，供应能力短期提升空间有限。。。。
黄磷：
本周黄磷价格逐步下移。。下游部分企业降负荷生产，，，对黄磷采购积极性明显降低。。。为促进走货，，，，部分厂家和贸易商小幅降价签单。。。。但是考虑到目前磷矿石价格高位难降并且仍有上涨预期，，，，再加上临近10月，，，，云南、、、四川地区电价有上调可能，，，，黄磷成本面易涨难跌，，，，黄磷价格下降空间不大，，，整体降幅较小。。。
供应方面：本周黄磷供应量较上周小幅增加。。。。四川雅安地区、、、、攀枝花地区增开及正常生产。。。。
库存方面：本周黄磷行业库存约23400吨，，，，较上周小幅增加。。。。主因本周黄磷下游企业询单拿货积极性明显降低，，，但是部分黄磷企业有前期待发订单，，，，所以库存增幅不大。。
需求方面：本周黄磷需求清淡，，新单成交偏少，，，主因前期黄磷价格涨至高位，，，，下游产品价格跟涨缓慢，，，成本压力不断增加，，对黄磷高价接受困难，，，，采购积极性明显降低。。。。
后市预测：下周中秋假期收假后，，部分企业预计有补货需求，，，再加上临近国庆假期，，，，预计黄磷价格稳中偏强运行。。
利好：
第一，，，，目前部分黄磷企业有待发订单，，，暂无出货压力；部分企业库存低位，，，有在丰水期做库存计划，，，预计大幅降价签单可能不高。。
第二，，，临近国庆，，，按照往年规律，，，，下游企业将会提前备货。。。国庆期间，，，高速禁止运输，，，下游企业一般会提前补充库存，，，，为国庆七天假期生产做准备，，，下周正处于国庆节前备货期，，需求预计会有提升，，，在一定程度上支撑价格偏强运行。。
第三，，，，成本面利好支撑。。临近10月，，四川、、云南地区电价有上涨消息，，支撑黄磷企业保持低价惜售心态。。。
利空：
第一，，，，目前黄磷市场开工仍然良好，，，供应偏高。。。
第二，，，下游产品需求没有明显好转，，再加上价格跟涨困难，，，，预计对黄磷高价接受度低。。
第三，，个别企业预计有停产减产计划，，，，对黄磷消耗减少。。。。
热法磷酸：
本周热法磷酸价格先涨后稳，，，，下游多持观望态度。。。主因前期高价采购的黄磷库存仍未完全消耗，，，成本端依旧承压，，，，周后期企业报价基本平稳；从市场实际成交来看，，，，本周热法磷酸市场交投氛围清淡，，，，高价成交困难。。。。
从成本看，，，本周黄磷市场氛围偏淡，，，价格持续小幅下滑。。周前期，，黄磷市场价格高位盘整，，，，热法磷酸成本支撑较强，，，价格小幅上调；周后期，，，，黄磷价格小幅下调，，，，但成本在产业链传导具有时滞性，，，热法磷酸多数企业报价持稳，，，，市场主流成交价暂稳运行。。。。
从供需看，，，本周西南、、、、东北个别厂家恢复生产，，，市场整体供应增多，，但下游节前备货基本结束，，，场内少有大单成交，，，，市场需求一般。。。
后市预测：预计下周热法磷酸市场价格稳定，，，，供需两侧仍观望居多，，，，市场价格涨跌两难。。。。
本周湿法净化磷酸价格稳定.
从供给来看，，本周贵州、、、四川、、、广西地区，，，，其中某贵州主流大企停车装置于本周初恢复运行，，市场供给量窄幅增长，，，，但多数在产企业有订单支撑，，，库存低位，，短时议价能力仍存，，，，各企保持积极稳价或看涨心态。。。
从需求来看，，，下游采购按需进行。。国内需求支撑稳定，，，，但对净化酸高价保持谨慎抵触心理，，，另外贸市场走货正常。。。。
从同品市场来看，，本周黄磷下游刚需清淡，，叠加黄磷工厂供给充足，，，，高价成交困难，，，成交重心步步走跌，，，，累计跌幅300元/吨。。。。热法磷酸市场价格暂稳，，，，但后期受成本影响，，，，价格会有下行预期，，加重湿法净化磷酸工厂观望心态，，，，提振后市净化酸价格上涨略有吃力。。。
后市预测：预计下周湿法净化磷酸低价成交有限，，，，价格或稳或小涨心态并存。。。
1.建议关注供给侧产量变化。。预计下周广西、、、四川、、云南等地产量有增加计划，，届时供给侧继续增量。。短期来看，，，，工厂库存仍保持低位，，，，市场供给量虽增，，，但工厂仍有一定议价空间；长期来看，，，市场刚需有限，，，市场供给量逐步增长，，，考虑到后期工厂预收订单收尾，，，工厂库存增加，，利空净化酸工厂议价。。。。
2.关注下游磷酸铁装置运行及下游拿货心态转变。。。。不排除受中秋假期影响，，，，下游提前询单采购，，，市场交投增加，，，利好净化酸价格看涨。。。。另外，，，，国内新能源市场需求有增量预期，，，但不排除部分工厂或继续保持谨慎压价心态，，高价商谈吃力，，，成交靠拢低端。。出口方面订单充足，，对国内价格有支撑。。。
3.关注下周黄磷—热法磷酸价格传导情况。。黄磷价格企稳困难，，叠加中秋发运受限，，，，后市价格无明朗看涨预期，，跌价陆续传导至热法磷酸市场，，，加剧与湿法净化磷酸价格博弈，，，，存利空支撑。。。。
Phosphate Rock:
There was no change in phosphate rock prices this week. In terms of production, phosphate rock enterprises in the northern region have resumed production, and the short-term improvement of supply capacity is limited, and the transaction price of phosphate rock is relatively stable.
Yellow phosphorus:
The price of yellow phosphorus gradually declined this week. Some downstream enterprises reduced their production capacity and procurement for yellow phosphorus was significantly reduced. In order to promote the shipment, some manufacturers and traders signed orders with a slight price reduction. However, considering that the current phosphate rock price is difficult to fall at a high level and there is still an expectation of rising, coupled with the approaching October, the electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan may be raised, the cost of yellow phosphorus is easy to rise and difficult to fall, so the price of yellow phosphorus has little room to fall.
Supply: The supply of yellow phosphorus this week increased slightly compared to last week. A few manufacturers in Sichuan Ya'an area, Panzhihua area increased and normal production.
Inventory: The inventory of the yellow phosphorus this week was about 23,400 tons, a slight increase from last week. The main reason is that the procurement of downstream enterprises of yellow phosphorus has decreased significantly this week. But some yellow phosphorus manufacturer have sufficient pending orders, so the inventory increase is not large.
On the demand: this week, the demand for yellow phosphorus is light, and the new orders are few, mainly because the price of yellow phosphorus has risen to a high level in the early stage, the price of downstream products has risen slowly, the cost pressure has been increasing, and it is difficult for downstream enterprises to accept the high price, and the procurement has decreased significantly.
Forecast: Some companies are expected to have replenishment needs after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday next week and coupled with the approaching Chinese National holiday, it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable and strong.
Positive：
1. At present, some yellow phosphorus enterprises have pending orders, and there is no shipping pressure for the time being; Some enterprises have procurement plans in the wet season and low inventories, and it is expected that the price reduction may not be high.
2. Approaching of the Chinese National Day, according to the law of previous years, downstream enterprises will stock up in advance. During the National Day, high-speed transportation is prohibited, downstream enterprises will generally replenish inventory in advance, prepare for the production of the seven-day National Day holiday, and next week is in the stocking period before the National Day, and the demand is expected to increase, to a certain extent, to support the strong operation of prices.
3. The cost side is good support. Approaching October, there is news of rising electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan, which supports yellow phosphorus enterprises to maintain a low price mentality.
Passive:
1. The operating rate of yellow phosphorus market is well, and the supply is high.
2. The demand for downstream products has not improved significantly, coupled with the difficulty of keeping up with the price rise, it is expected that the acceptance of the high price of yellow phosphorus is low.
Individual enterprises are expected to have plans to stop production and reduce production, and reduce the consumption of yellow phosphorus.
Thermal phosphoric acid:
This week, the price of thermal phosphoric acid rose first and then stable, and the downstream mostly held a wait-and-see attitude. The main reason is that the downstream enterprises has much inventory of yellow phosphorus with high price in the early stage. The transaction is limited and it is difficult to trade at a high price.
For the cost, transactions of yellow phosphorus were weak, and the price continued to decline slightly. In the early part of the week, the cost of thermal phosphoric acid was strongly supported, and the price was slightly raised; In the later part of the week, the price of yellow phosphorus decreased slightly, but the cost was transmitted in the industrial chain with a time lag, the quotation of most thermal phosphoric acid enterprises remained stable, and the mainstream transaction price of the market was temporarily stable.
For the supply and demand, individual manufacturers in the southwest and northeast resumed production this week, and the overall supply of the market increased, but the downstream pre-holiday stocking was basically over, and there were few large orders in the field, and the market demand was average.
Forecast: It is expected that the market price of thermal phosphoric acid will be stable next week, and the supply and demand sides will still wait and see, and the market price will be in a dilemma.
Wet purified phosphoric acid:
This week, the price of wet purified phosphoric acid is stable.
For the supply, some manufacturers of Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi resumed operation at the beginning of this week, the market supply increased in a narrow range, but most of the manufacturers have low inventory and pending orders, short-term bargaining power still exists, enterprises to maintain a positive price stabilization or bullish mentality.
For the demand, downstream procurement is carried out on demand. Domestic demand is stable, but it remains cautious and resistant to the high price of purified acid. The demand of exporting is normal.
From aspect of the thermal phosphoric acid, this week, the downstream of yellow phosphorus just needs to be light, and the supply of yellow phosphorus factories is sufficient, and it is difficult to trade at high prices, and the center of gravity of the transaction is falling step by step. The market price of thermal phosphoric acid is temporarily stable, but due to the impact of cost in the later stage, the price is expected to decline, which aggravates the wait-and-see mentality of the wet purification phosphoric acid plant and boosts the price of purified acid in the future market.
Forecast:
It is expected that the low-price transaction of wet purified phosphoric acid will be limited next week, and the price will be stable or slightly rising.
1. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in output on the supply side. It is expected that there are plans to increase production in Guangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan and other places next week, and the supply side will continue to increase at that time. In the short term, factory inventories remain low, and although market supply increases, factories still have some room for bargaining; In the long run, the market demand is limited, the market supply is gradually increasing, considering the end of the factory pre-received orders in the later stage, the factory inventory increases, and the price negotiation of the purification acid factory.
2. Pay attention to the operation of downstream iron phosphate plants and the change of mentality of downstream goods. It is not excluded that due to the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the downstream will inquire and purchase in advance, and the market will increase in trading, which is good for the price of purified acid. In addition, the domestic new energy market demand is expected to increase, but it is not excluded that some factories may continue to maintain a cautious price reduction mentality, and it is difficult to negotiate at high prices, and the transaction is close to the low-end. On the export side, there are sufficient orders, which supports domestic prices.
3. Pay attention to the price transmission of yellow phosphorus-thermal phosphoric acid next week. It is difficult for the price of yellow phosphorus to stabilize, superimposed on the limited shipment of the Mid-Autumn Festival, and there is no clear bullish expectation for the price outlook, and the falling price has been transmitted to the thermal phosphoric acid market, intensifying the price game with wet purified phosphoric acid, and there is negative support.
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